Krames Trades: A Trader's Technical Analysis and Investment Blog

Risk Off - System by Krames Trades

2011-09-28T20:13:00.007-04:00

Coupon: UGAV23729

Subscribe to my new quantitative pairs trading system. This coupon will give you a discounted price.

Below is a chart of the systems theoretical performance when backtested since 3/31/2008.

/ES trading along trends

2011-03-22T14:55:00.000-04:00

These drawings I have here have been doing a pretty good job at anticipating support, resistance, and reversal points.

Closing Out Straddles

2011-03-09T10:02:00.002-05:00

I'll repopulate this as I continue to close them out.

FNSR
-Sold Mar 41 put @14.70

Straddle Trades

2011-03-08T23:54:00.000-05:00

Some straddle trades im in...

Sold out of a nice one today that I entered yesterday into the close on BKCC

-Long May 12.50 call @ .40 - exited @ .20
-Long May 12.50 put @ .35 - exited @ 1.20

Paid out nicely from a big downward move from earnings, missed better fill prices though.

Others which I have now entered as earnings plays....

FNSR
- Long March 41 put @ 2.30
- Long March 41 call @ 2.25

SMTC
- Long March 24 put @ .90
- Long March 24 call @ .90

MCP
- Long March 45 put @ .75
- Long March 55 call @ .75

HITK
- Long March 17.50 put @ .20
- Long March 22.50 call @ .25

We'll see how they play out
- Krames

S&P Futures looks like they may be in for a reversal (/ES)

2011-03-03T20:48:00.001-05:00

/ES - Looks to be hitting a key level and starting to trade sideways. The week may close S&P lower. The 1 hour chart is above, and a 4 hour chart below.

ATVI to resume bullish pattern

2011-03-03T18:44:00.001-05:00

ATVI - Activision Blizzard, video game behemoth, looks to be returning back to its bullish triangular pattern. It broke south out its lower support after its earnings news suprised negatively among other plans moving forward.

An article posted on optionMONSTER a couple days ago states of a massive position taken of long 40,000 May 12 calls and writing 20,000 May 10 puts, putting the investor in at at $0.125 per option. Although they are dropping their Guitar Hero line, their other game franchises such as Call of Duty and World of Warcraft draw enough business and leave potential for growth to keep Activision on top.

The bull has faltered but is now back on its feet, I say its a good time to ride. Price target around $15.40.

BEE Altered Chart

2011-03-02T00:39:00.001-05:00

The green lines with the text next to them are not massive upcandles, but rather a measure of the width of the triangle and breakup - probably should of used a different color...

Credit to Steve Y to bringing his opinions and anlysis to the table; his charts are posted in the comments of this post

Markets ready for a bounce?

2011-03-01T20:39:00.000-05:00

The S&P has been moving like a roller coaster recently, but it looks as though 1295 is proving to be a key level

Bank of America is in for a move

2011-02-28T14:47:00.002-05:00

Las Vegas Sands Corp

2011-02-28T14:30:00.000-05:00

Las Vegas Sands - Casino bomb?

Looks as though this is about to drop through the floor.

Wheres the market heading?

2011-02-28T13:43:00.000-05:00

E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures, March 11

Voice your opinion in the comments.

Krames

AstraZeneca and Gorgeous OmniVision Technologies trade

2011-02-25T14:47:00.002-05:00

AZN - AstraZeneca looks to be due for a movement up north, I have a target price if all goes well of around 58

In other news... my trade of the day:

2/23 bought OVTI March 11, 27 strike calls ------- average fill of 0.35

2/25 sold OVTI March 11, 27 strike calls ---------- average fill of 3.20

814% ? Not bad!

Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold

2011-02-24T16:37:00.000-05:00

Strategic Hotels and Resorts

2011-02-24T16:28:00.000-05:00

If BEE is around my 6.09 Price level within the next week and a half as it approaches the support intersect, I'm a buyer.

Sprint is one to watch closely...

2011-02-24T16:22:00.000-05:00

A good opportunity to go long... but not yet. Wait for this to trade lower/sideways to about 4.10 and then a long will probably be in order. This could be a good play for early next week.

Long AIG

2011-02-24T16:17:00.002-05:00

Another earnings play, and its close to a intersecting support point, I feel a strong upside bet.

Dreamworks

2011-02-24T16:15:00.000-05:00

Earnings after the close - I dont think this is goign to break lower quite yet, but rather rise up back towards the upper resistance. Long

Nice Earnings Play

2011-02-23T13:43:00.000-05:00

OVTI - down big the past two days, partly due to the market confusion yesterday with all the worldly conflict, and again today due to a downgrade of RW Baird's target from $35 to $24. Earnings tomorrow with these technicals make this a pretty buy for me.

I just put my order in for calls.

ACI 8.10 Steps

2011-02-21T10:31:00.000-05:00

Interesting chart, since the '08 bottom it seems to have been trading within various trading ranges, each having an interval of 8.10 higher than the previous. If history should repeat itself, ACI should remain under the 35.85 level for another 5 months or so, trading in the 8.10 range. However, a triangle also seems to be forming where it currently sits, and a rebound in the 32.30/50 level could send this stock right through the 35.85 level.

Sprint Resistance

2011-02-15T20:57:00.000-05:00

S chart update

2011-01-29T20:47:00.002-05:00

V - A good technical long reinforced with upcoming earnings Wednesday

2011-01-29T17:02:00.000-05:00

Not much else to say other than what reads in the title of this post.

IM Chart Revisit

2011-01-28T15:02:00.000-05:00

Heres an update of how an old chart I posted HERE on IM unfolded; it could be at a key level.

When I posted this previously, the blue support had just met its first touch after IM had broken through the white support and turned it into a level of resistance. Shortly after, prices pushed back towards the white resistance, and came back down to the blue support level of 14.66, yeilding a nice opportunity to play the trading range and make profits in both directions. IM has since made a nice rally and risen back up to the white resistance.

With markets widely down today, it will be interesting to see how the stock reacts at these levels.

Krames

One to watch, Dr. Pepper

2011-01-27T17:58:00.000-05:00

This should be interesting to follow in the next few weeks. The stock has been trading within narrowing range, and is now approaching the axis. What is also interesting about this chart is how prices have been using the middle dotted line both as support and resistance, pushing through to favor the other side every so often.

I feel this may be a good opportunity for some profit towards the upside.

Krames

Pop out?

2011-01-27T17:49:00.000-05:00

Glimcher Realty Trust should be popping up on a nice looking chart, solidified by some positive real estate news.

Shoulda seen this one coming...

2011-01-27T17:39:00.000-05:00

Maybe next time

C

2011-01-22T15:30:00.000-05:00

Target of 6.50

Golden Star

2010-08-30T09:09:00.002-04:00

GSS Golden Star Resources

Sprint Nextel going up?

2010-08-27T17:04:00.000-04:00

Remember THIS chart from about a month ago? Well it looks as if Sprint Nextel may be in for a streak upwards soon.

Wheat; who knows what people are thinking anymore

2010-08-26T00:46:00.002-04:00

Price is high, and so is open interest. Looks like a double touch on this line; personally I think the algorithmic models with asset allocation based on market momentum overloaded on this Ag and drove the price way higher than it should have gone.

"Wheat prices increased for the first time in a week after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said global production will drop 5.1 percent to a three-year low. " (Bloomberg) OK so let me think about this... Production is down 5.1%... why from June 10th to August 6th did the price of futures more than double? Over speculation if you ask me.

Who the frig cares if worldwide production is to "fall to 645.7 million metric tons in the year that began June 1 from 680.3 million a year earlier."(Bloomberg) Only an idiot would think that every single ounce of that wheat will be going right to plants for production, theres always a hoarded stockpile somewhere. Sure prices should go up some, but even now I believe we are too high. I thought this was a short before, and i still do,; it should have never gotten this high.

Remember this Wheat post?

2010-07-27T23:01:00.000-04:00

HERE

Well look at wheat now. The day after this post wheat DID pull back from its close of 548.25 for two days to 534.25; a slight pull back of about 2.6%.

But what happened after that? As I stated in my previous post, sky was the limit and did wheat futures ever shoot up, all the way up to 627, a rise of 17.4%.

But now I'm seeing a nice time to play the reverse position.

First of all, the markets are recovering, and one of the things that makes commodities such a great investment is their diversification effect, in that they have tended to move inversely or uncorrelated to equities in the past. The markets going up is in no way a sign that so will commodities, and if anythign its pointing towards a weakening of the market; many commodities had a fairly weak day today. Wheat is currently in heavily overbought levels, and has been sitting up there for quite some time now; not to mention volume has slowed down these past few days also. A touch right here on my white trend line could result in a nice downside play in shorting the futures and/or buying puts.

I'm going to indulge, so we'll see how my move pans out.

-Krames

Some charts.....

2010-07-27T21:53:00.000-04:00

DPS

GSS

NLST

/QM light sweet crude futures

-Krames

Just a couple quick charts

2010-07-12T19:09:00.000-04:00

M- Macy's

NLST - Netlist Inc.

Will post something later most likely.

-Krames

Dr. Pepper, you make the world taste better

2010-07-11T23:59:00.000-04:00

Posted a DPS chart a little while ago, and it seems to have breached the upper resistance ever-so slightly. The alltime high of this stock was previously 38.93, and it currently sits at 38.54. In increase of only 0.40, or 1.04% would bring it to new key high levels.

We'll see what happens, I'm feeling a nice pop-up.

-Krames

Today in review.

2010-07-09T19:42:00.000-04:00

Wheat pulled back slighty, /ES continued on up though slowing down its haste.

Volume of trading on /ES was lower than the norm, only reaching 1.42MM at this current time for the day. Being the summer, many people are on vacation and friday being the start of the weekend, I think you can attribute some of that to this. The Relative Strength Index has slowed down its momentum and is sitting at the midway point with a rounded off top due to the almost neutral day of trading.

Keep an eye on wheat though, a good entry may be coming up but not before a little more of a pullback.

Enjoy the weekend.

-Krames

Keep this in mind

2010-07-09T07:25:00.001-04:00

Interesting CotD chart.

-Krames

Might be interesting to watch...

2010-07-08T21:56:00.001-04:00

Ingram Micro Inc. is the name of the company, could have a nice upside soon. It seems to have some pretty reliably consistent support and resistance lines.

-Krames

Natural Gas a short term buy.

2010-07-08T21:46:00.000-04:00

Natural Gas took a hit towards the downside after estimates being under the actual. I feel this is a good time to buy for about a week period hold.

This week has been HOT; it was not fun takign the subway and walking into work on Tuesday in a suit, when temperatures hit 104 degrees. With hot weather, comes more use of airconditioning and other cooling devices. What powers these - natural gas. The results of this heat will have a lagged effect to the market and will appear next week. Keeping this in mind, take a look at the open interest which has shown signs of decline. Less supply with more demand should push up these prices and made a nicely profitable long trade. With the down day today, the price should be rebounding up regardless, so why not get in on this movement at a cheaper price? Just placed an order myself.

- Krames

Wheat pulling back tomorrow...

2010-07-08T20:48:00.000-04:00

Wheat had another nice upday, but I feel like a slight pull back is still in order. Lets take a look at the chart.

Volume has recently higher than the norm, showing increased interest in the market on this ag. This, in combination with the overbought levels of 76 on the RSI, solidify my predicitions of a minor pull back to the previous levels of resistance. After that, sky could be the limit.

-Krames

Market making strides?

2010-07-07T18:40:00.000-04:00

Dow has made it past 10,000 (again) with a nearly 300 point upday, and the S&P popped up a nice 32 points giving me solid gains on my /ES position. Seems that trendline convergence I posted here seemed to be showing somethign after all.

Now if you look at commodities at all, you would have noticed the way wheat futures have sored recently; is it past key levels? Wheats rocketing up in the recent trading days seems to have passed it easily through points of resistance from the past 5 months, as well as a fairly long term downward trending channel.

Is now the time to buy? If you ask me, not quite yet. The volume in these recent days looks to be a tad higher than the norm, and if you take a look at the RSI indicator it shows signs of overbuying. I think we might see these wheat futures possibly rise a tad more, but fall back its previous resistance levels of 512-520. I do think that these will as a result shift to support, and promote further uptrending for this Ag Commodity.

- Krames

Bought BP

2010-07-06T20:00:00.003-04:00

on 7/1/2010 @ 29.94

/ES Trend Line Convergence

2010-07-06T19:13:00.000-04:00

Has the market hit a key point of multiple resistance lines, and could it be in for a rebound up higher?

Looks like it. Voice your thoughts in the comments.

Head and Shoulders

2010-07-02T22:55:00.000-04:00

Head and Shoulders.

CLNE

Investopedia - "The "head-and-shoulders" pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend-reversal patterns."

Is the market looking at further sell offs to come?

/ES

Could bounce off the channel trend line up, or crash right on through... My guess is going through the bottom with all the hype over the "death cross" (50 and 200 day moving averages crossing, which dosent happen often), and all of negativity investors have in the market right now.

S&P 500 E-Minis

2010-07-02T11:32:00.000-04:00

Interesting things may be approaching. With today being the weeks close we'll see how the markets open after a long weekend. But lets see how they close today first.

-Krames

Increased Upward Pressure

2010-07-02T11:10:00.000-04:00

These increased upward pressure towards the previous highs is signaling to me a movement upwards sometime soon...

Buy Opportunity

2010-07-01T16:30:00.000-04:00

DPS - Dr. Pepper Snapple

Clean & Quick

2010-03-11T23:30:00.003-05:00

Clean Energy has been making strides; up 29% since I picked it up and 16% today let alone. They had earnings today and the beat helped push the price up to new highs.

What a tease Quicksilver has been... and still is. They beat in earnings, (though still reported negative) and ended the day down 8%; ouch. I'm still up 20.5% on this position and im going to hold; what was the upper resistance seems to have turned into a lower support. We'll see if this holds as I hold onto this.

- Krames

A little busy

2010-03-10T14:54:00.000-05:00

Quicksilver is golden right now; the past 7 days have been nice up days. Tomorrow is their earnings report which could be big, and I'm already up about 25% on this position. It HAS pushed through my upper resitance line, I believe that this security may very well soar higher as I've said in my previous posts.

ZQK

Wheat is also moving slightly down since my post on the threat of India lifting their export ban; I have not seen any updates on this.

/ZW (wheat futures)

Playboy hasn't done too much, but it is still up about 3% since I picked it up; I think its somethign good to hold on too.

Been a little busy, I'll try to get some charts up soon

- Krames

Quicksilver

2010-03-08T15:05:00.001-05:00

Quicksilver has been looking good over the past week, up over 19% since I picked it up. It is right at the top resistance line right now, but I wouldn't consider this too much of a worry with their earnings coming out in 3 days; I'm pretty coonfident they'll beat. Updated chart below.

- Krames

Excuse me while I buy some Playboy.

2010-03-07T18:41:00.001-05:00

I mean their securities, not their publications.

Playboy has taken a beating, but truth be told I just don't see them disappearing. Lets face it; if they made it all the way to now (and I mean through the recession) I think it's safe to say that they will still be around for a bit. Besides that, this magazine is read by everyone from husbands to their children who come across them, and I don't think consumers nor investors will let them die.

So could this be a great deal right now? Maybe, let's look into it just a bit.

Playboy (PLA)

They're restructuring right now. Since the beginning of 2008 Playboy has been surprising earnings... to the down side. February 18, 2010 alone was -0.83 vs. the estimate of only -0.01; wowzers. This is necessary.

What's interesting is that while they have been reporting horrendous earnings the price of a share of stock in PLA has risen over 200%. (I told you consumers and investors won't let them go)

Robert Campbell was recently designated as being the company's new "Principal Financial Officer" (CFO). He's been with Playboy since 1992 so he is bound to know what needs to be changed to get back to the good.
They're open to selling. This means a premium paid on the stock if it were to happen in the future and a nice gap up. Now (or soon) would be the time for an outside investor to snag it up while its trading at 3.44 a share for a total Market Cap of $115 million; they already missed its low of 1.03.

Well, I'm buying them. In centerfolds I trust.

- Krames

Security, Security.

2010-03-07T17:12:00.000-05:00

This looks like it might be something interesting to watch. VASCO Data Security International, Inc. Stock has weak volume but over the long term this looks like its going to swing upward from here on out. Earnings on February 8, 2010 beat the estimates by a little over 100% (0.15 vs. 0.073). Any one have any opinions on this?

- Krames

Friday

2010-03-06T12:14:00.002-05:00

So lets touch on yesterday a little bit...

The overall market.

The Dow closed up over 120 points +
Unemployment stayed unchanged, rather than increase +

On some of my recent things to watch

Wheat: -1.74% (export ban lift decision next week)
BEE: +14.43% (nice pop!)
GRT: +4.88%
CBAK: up a bit, but holding against those resistance lines. Chart below
ZQK: +1.37%, +14.73% since bought a few days
GS: keeps climbing... BUT its right on the resistance line now. Have my stop set for 170 still; been in it too long to miss it. Chart below

CBAK

Any winners yesterday for anyone? Have a good weekend.

- Krames

Home to me is reality, and all I need is something real.

2010-03-05T10:01:00.001-05:00

In Boston's Logan airport awaiting to board my flight to New Jersey for the weekend; hopefully the markets have been moving in favor by the time I land, the unchanged unemployment and only a loss of 36,000 is a good way to start at least.

- Krames

Get your wheat puts in...

2010-03-05T01:18:00.001-05:00

India meeting to discuss lifting wheat export ban.

Wheats already pretty low, unlike a lot of the market, wheat hasn't made a recovery since the plummet of the market; a huge increase in the supply from the world's second largest producer won't do it any good either. Supply and demand people, if this ban gets lifted this stuffs droppin' like its hot. To make matters even worse for the price of wheat, the "wheat harvest will reach a record this year, more than forecast." The only thing good I'd be looking for out of this is cheaper Wheaties driving up GIS revenues... short wheat, long GIS!

Just saying.

-Krames

Two breakouts?

2010-03-05T01:01:00.000-05:00

I was reading another blog and two stocks the author had mentioned in particular caught my eye for long positions; BEE and GRT. Both are in the line of real estate and their charts are looking perfect right now for pop ups. They are also trading at DIRT compared to their pre-2008 levels. I like to link trends in charts with trends in the industry (not in charts but rather where they are going, i.e. an increase in M&A for iBanks), I feel real estate is back on the rise; looking for an apartment sure makes you feel that way when you see the prices! I've posted them below (sorry if the trend lines are completely visible, I don't know why some have spaces); sometimes a simple asymmetrical triangle is all you need...

Undervalued?

-Krames

Success Takes Time

2010-03-04T20:35:00.001-05:00

"Success is relative: It is what we can make of the mess we have made of things." - T.S.Eliot

A couple updates

2010-03-04T18:07:00.000-05:00

Just a couple updates here. Still feeling real confident on ZQK especially with their earnings coming up; since my buy at the open yesterday I'm up 12.79% on that position, caught a really nice candle. It still hasn't passed my upper trend line, I wouldn't frown upon the idea of buying some more, but I'm not going to. Heres the updated chart.

I'd also like to talk about CBAK; I wrote earlier about this looking interesting because of all the converging trend lines. This has moved down 2.77% today, and the bottom support horizontal trend lines seem to show that this stock may break down further. I have posted two charts below, both updated and the same thing, but different time frames. If you look at the second chart, a zoomed in look at the point which the trend lines intersect shows an interesting point of resistance. This is particularly interesting because it is the intersect of three long term trend lines (5 year daily trend lines) in the grey box. I feel this solidifies the point of resistance, and this is meant to go down.

Gotta run some errands. What do we think?

- Krames

And again with GS...

2010-03-04T12:18:00.002-05:00

Shorted some more GS @162.43; it spiked up a bit today. The price is approaching the limit of about 165, (looks to be about 169 now) that I mentioned earlier, so I'm also putting in a stop buy for 170. I'll keep shorting as it rises.

- Krames

Sold out YHOO

2010-03-04T09:50:00.002-05:00

Got out of my YHOO position @ 15.65

Missed RDI

2010-03-03T14:49:00.000-05:00

Sold RDI @4.33, definitely missed that move. Only about a 1% loss but a loss never the less. Lesson learned.

-Krames

One to watch

2010-03-03T13:36:00.000-05:00

The 5 year daily chart on CBAK has a lot of crosses coming up on long term trend lines. Going to keep an eye on this.

- Krames

MDVN

2010-03-03T10:41:00.000-05:00

Bought MDVN @13.12 and again @13.03; their Alzheimers drug didn't get passed and the stock plummeted. i believe that it is undervalued and WAY over sold. Volume is currently at 23,000,000 vs 600,000 avg.

- Krames

Filled ZQK order

2010-03-03T09:39:00.001-05:00

@ 2.58

Quicksilver looking like a good buy

2010-03-03T02:44:00.000-05:00

Got a nice little chart here for Quicksilver (ZQK); this has an asymmetrical triangle approaching its vertex thats signaling a break up. Notice the breach of the upper support line where circled green. I believe this can be ignored and viewed as being a false action based on the abnormal spike in volume at the time; just some over trading IMO. Seems to have been performing pretty well lately earnings wise, it has beaten estimates the past 6 reports. This is another justification as to why I believe this puppy is going to climb, their next earnings is 3/11(circled in yellow). I'm putting a buy in for this as we speak, I will post the fill price tomorrow.

Forgot to post position

2010-03-02T14:30:00.000-05:00

Bought GSS on the same date as RDI. Bought this @3.15

Re-short GS

2010-03-02T14:18:00.001-05:00

Shorted some more GS @ 158.86

Bought YHOO

2010-03-02T12:36:00.003-05:00

@ 15.79

Bought RDI @ 4.38

2010-03-01T09:43:00.003-05:00

Got in kind of late.. we'll see how it goes.

Sold CSX

2010-02-26T16:04:00.001-05:00

Sold CSX @ 47.50.

The 1Y Daily chart looks like it has rounded off up top, I don't see it going much higher.

ES Long

2010-02-26T14:25:00.000-05:00

Went long ES (E-mini S&P 500 Futures) @ 1101.75

Holdings at the start of this blog...

2010-02-26T14:11:00.003-05:00

I figured I should post what positions I'm already in at this point, where I got in, and what direction I entered. (By the way I trade through Thinkorswim platform)

Longs:

CLNE
CSX
DPS
M
TRC

Shorts:

I'm going to speak of GS in particular. Shorted GS on account of the bad rap they've been getting recently; the Greece currency swaps primarily. I also drew out a pretty interesting chart, by the looks of it the channel and trend lines intercept vertex is approaching which could prove to be a vital point. THIS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO MID 2007. The triangle they form is giving me further reason to believe this is going to drop. If GS passes 165 within the next two weeks then I am probably wrong.

We will see.

-Krames

Welcome to Krames Trades

2010-02-26T13:00:00.001-05:00

Welcome to Krames Trades

Krames is the name, and I made this blog to share my picks and technical analysis when it comes to the markets. I decided to start this blog not so much for people to read, but as a personal log for myself. I thought that it would be neat to document myself as I advance in skill (hopefully), and to allow other people to experience my ups and downs as well. That being said, I am in no way giving advice, and cannot be held liable for losses incurred by following my foot steps. Feel free to comment on posts as to why you think a position might be a good/bad buy/short.

-Krames